Brazil’s Voluntary Fossil‑Fuel Roadmap Arrives Ahead of COP31
Brazil has released a voluntary global “roadmap” for phasing out coal, oil and gas, aiming to guide nations through a three‑phase transition by 2033.
Why Brazil issued a fossil‑fuel roadmap
At COP30 in Belém, a coalition of 85 countries called for a reference to a new “roadmap” for moving away from coal, oil and gas to be included in the summit’s negotiated outcome. A counter‑group, reported to include 84 nations, opposed the inclusion, though analysis suggests the actual number of opponents was lower due to inconsistencies in the informal list. After two weeks of debate, Brazil announced that the roadmap would not become part of the formal COP30 outcome but would be pursued outside the UN process as a voluntary guide.
What the roadmap contains
The document acknowledges that delayed action has made the 1.5°C target unattainable without overshooting, yet it stresses that the transition to clean energy is already underway and that needed policies exist. It frames the shift as both a climate and a development challenge, especially for emerging markets.
Central to the plan is the “Belém readiness index,” a voluntary self‑assessment tool for countries to gauge their fossil‑fuel dependence and transition capacity. COP30 CEO Ana Toni described this as the “diagnosis” stage, emphasizing that there is no “one‑size‑fits‑all” answer.
After assessing readiness, countries would be placed into four “archetypes,” each linked to specific policy “levers.” The roadmap outlines three chronological phases:
Phase 1 (now‑2028): Focus on institutions and long‑term signals, coinciding with the second global stocktake due at COP33.
Phase 2 (2028‑2030): Target the physical transformation of energy systems ahead of the next round of nationally determined contributions.
Phase 3 (2031‑2033): Emphasise scaling up the transition, marking ten years after the COP28 call for a global phase‑out.
At a press briefing, Toni said each stage is “extremely pragmatic and easy for countries to take a look at.”
Reactions from experts and civil society
Dr Natalie Jones of the International Institute for Sustainable Development called the roadmap an “important political signal” that keeps the transition on the international agenda while offering practical guidance tailored to national circumstances.
Avantika Goswami of the Centre for Science and Environment described it as a “unique and consultative method of multilateralism,” noting that the framework captures the complexity of the transition and urges countries to align pathways with historical responsibility and capacity.
Former UN adviser Ploy Achakulwisut praised the readiness index for identifying countries with similar transition conditions, suggesting it could help align finance, technology and capacity‑building with specific needs.
Implications for COP31 in Turkey
The roadmap arrives a week before COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey. Co‑presidents Turkey and Australia have set a target to raise the share of global final energy consumption met by electricity from roughly 24 % in 2023 to 35 % by 2035. COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago said this electrification goal is “complementary” to the roadmap’s aims.
Carbon Brief notes that some parties view the focus on electrification as a way to sidestep a deeper debate on fossil‑fuel phase‑out, but the Brazilian roadmap provides a structured, voluntary pathway that could shape discussions at the summit.
Whether nations will adopt the readiness index and follow the phased approach remains to be seen, but the document offers a concrete, development‑sensitive framework that could influence the next round of climate negotiations.
