2026 May Mark a Democratic Resurgence After Defeats of Orbán, Vučić and Bolsonaro Jr.
Recent elections in Hungary, Serbia and Brazil have produced unexpected defeats for entrenched autocrats, sparking cautious optimism for democracy.
Hungary’s Unexpected Turn
In April, Hungary delivered a surprise when challenger Péter Magyar defeated Viktor Orbán, the EU’s most entrenched autocrat. Orbán’s decades‑long grip had aligned media, judiciary and academia with his agenda, yet a broad civic movement rallied behind Magyar’s party and celebrated on the Danube banks.
Serbia’s Student‑Led Upset
Three hundred kilometres downstream, Belgrade witnessed the Student List—a coalition of students, academics and citizens—ousting Aleksandar Vučić. Vučić, who had ruled since 2014 through a mix of far‑right rhetoric, financial scandals and contempt for the rule of law, saw his fate sealed after the 2024 collapse of the Novi Sad train‑station roof, which killed 16 and ignited fury over systemic corruption. The list’s figurehead, cardiologist and professor Ilija Srdanović, presented no strong ideological label but championed press freedom and the rule of law while maintaining a traditional Serbian stance on Kosovo.
Brazil’s Fourth Lula Victory
Brazil’s presidential election produced the most striking headline on Monday morning. Although Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round and polls predicted a runoff win for him, former president Lula da Silva secured a fourth term, defying expectations and stopping a right‑wing streak across Latin America.
What Unites the Winners?
Magyar, Srdanović and Lula differ politically—centre‑right, non‑ideological and left‑leaning respectively—but each stresses that democratic rules must be respected. They argue for fair elections, independent judges and journalists, and functional checks and balances.
Contrast With “Post‑Democrats”
The article defines “post‑democrats” as leaders who treat laws as optional, use elections to gain power, then hollow out institutions to protect private profit and avoid prosecution. Examples cited include Bolsonaro Jr., who mirrors Donald Trump’s claim that election losses equal rigging, and Benjamin Netanyahu, who now suggests foreign interference in Israel’s recent vote.
Global Democratic Health
The V‑Dem Institute’s latest International Democracy Report places the world’s democratic health at 1978 levels, with only 7 % of the global population living in liberal democracies. Yet the victories in Budapest, Belgrade and Brasília, alongside widespread Gen Z protests in India, the Philippines, Albania, Argentina and Chile, offer “rays of hope in dark times.”
Looking Ahead
Optimists wonder whether liberal democracy might be catching a second wind, perhaps even influencing the upcoming U.S. midterms, where polls suggest Democrats could regain the House of Representatives. Nonetheless, the article cautions that elections alone cannot heal deeply divided societies, noting the delegitimisation of Arab voters in Israel as a reminder that collective deliberation must accompany the ballot.
If 2026 proves to be the best year for democracy in over a quarter of a century, it could signal a turning point for liberal democracies worldwide.
