Congolese Refugees Stuck Between Ongoing War and Shrinking Aid
As fighting rages in eastern DRC, dwindling assistance and tighter borders leave millions of Congolese refugees in a precarious limbo.
Escalating Conflict Fuels a Regional Refugee Crisis
War in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo has turned a long‑standing displacement problem into a regional emergency, especially after the M23 rebel group seized Goma and Bukavu in early 2025.
By June 2026, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recorded 1.25 million Congolese refugees and asylum seekers, 80 % of whom are living in the DRC’s neighbouring states. Over 245 000 new arrivals were registered between January 2025 and April 2026.
Burundi and Uganda Bear the Brunt
Burundi alone received about 142 000 new arrivals, many fleeing after Bukavu fell in February 2025 and Uvira in December 2025, overwhelming its reception system.
Uganda hosts the largest share, sheltering 53 % of the Congolese refugee population. It logged over 236 000 arrivals from 2022‑2025, plus an additional 139 500 South Sudanese refugees since 2022.
Funding Gaps Threaten Humanitarian Operations
International aid cuts have crippled response capacities. In February, UNHCR reported that only 20 % of the US$35 million needed for its 2026 lifesaving assistance in Burundi had arrived.
In January, the International Rescue Committee warned that Uganda’s refugee health programme had secured merely 6 % of its 2026 budget, forcing cuts to health services for more than one million refugees.
Returns Amid Fragile Conditions
Within a month of the Burundi‑DRC border reopening in February 2026—following M23’s retreat from Uvira—33 000 Congolese refugees spontaneously returned to the DRC, despite ongoing insecurity in South Kivu.
The UNHCR continues to advise against returns to South and North Kivu, and facilitated returns to areas still held by M23 are impossible. Yet, over 80 % of Congolese refugees in Rwanda say they are willing to go back, awaiting safer conditions.
M23’s Role and the Risk to Refugee Rights
M23 encourages “spontaneous returns” to territories it controls, labeling them “post‑conflict.” When it captured Goma, the group dismantled internally displaced persons camps, displacing hundreds of thousands.
The rebel movement is also implicated in violence against civilians, including Rwandan refugees suspected of links to the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) or the Wazalendo militias. Some Rwandan refugees have been forcibly transferred back to Rwanda, with interference reported in UNHCR screening processes.
Broader Regional Implications
Armed groups such as M23, the FDLR, and Burundian rebels exploit the protracted refugee situation to justify their campaigns and recruit from refugee populations, including camps in Rwanda and Uganda, according to the UN Group of Experts.
This dynamic deepens security dilemmas across the Great Lakes Region, complicating political solutions and threatening the rights and reintegration of displaced peoples.
As host nations grapple with funding shortages and tighter security, the future of millions of Congolese refugees hangs in the balance, caught between an unsettled home front and increasingly closed doors abroad.
